A recent article in Computerworld magazine provides a nice plain english interview with political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita explaining his work using computers to predict conflict outcomes. In the interview Bueno de Mesquita describes the model he has developed for examining international conflicts based on two key dimensions. He is a proponent of a version of rational choice theory. As he explains,
The model starts by assuming that everyone cares about two dimensions on any policy issue: getting an outcome as close to what they want as possible, and getting credit for being essential in putting a deal together -- or preventing a deal.
A reprint of a more academic article by the author entitled Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace is available online for folks who want to dig deeper.